George Groves v Callum Smith Preview and Prediction
I’ll start off by saying that I’ve got a love hate relationship with George Groves. I loved him when he beat James Degale at 5/1 but that dissipated throughout the whole Carl Froch saga. He seemed to go beyond the usual bluster leading up to both Froch fights and genuinely believe what he was saying most of the time. The way in which he deluded himself into thinking that the first fight was stopped early was both impressive and worrying. His apparent indignance at the result of the first fight is what got him the second where he ultimately collapsed like a deck of cards. In case Froch ever forgets to mention it that was of course in front of 80,000 fans at Wembley.
George Groves
I’m willing to put aside my personal feelings and admit that George has a lot of ability. After all, Froch aside, he’s only been beaten by Badou Jack who himself has only 1 defeat on his record. Jack was a big Super Middleweight who has subsequently moved to Light Heavyweight and the win over Groves came via a split decision. Groves has won his 6 fights since including the last against Chris Eubank Jr.
Eubank was a major disappointment in that fight, losing it in in the same vein as he did against Billy Joe Saunders. Instead of throwing his famed 9 punches a second he barely threw 9 punches a round. Groves must take a decent amount of credit for that though with his own power and accuracy keeping Eubank back. Groves survived a late Eubank onslaught and a shoulder dislocation to take the win on points. The assumption is that the shoulder is now fine but Eubank Jr is there as a reserve if there is a late withdrawal.
Callum Smith
Callum Smith is the opponent as the World Boxing Super Series reaches its conclusion with Groves’ WBA belt at stake. Smith is the youngest and highest rated of the scouse Smith family. His 3 brothers have all achieved success at different levels and Callum is strongly tipped to follow suit and probably eclipse them in the long run.
His record is impeccable thus far with 24 wins and 17 KOs. It’s hard to gauge how good that form is because the opposition doesn’t really measure up to that of Groves. The most notable win came against Rocky Fielding for the British Super Middleweight belt 3 years ago. Fielding was unbeaten at that point and hasn’t lost since but Smith took the title with a first round KO. He did also beat two undefeated fighters on the way to this Super Series final and that has to be respected.
Groves v Smith Prediction
There are a number of unanswered questions when it comes to Callum Smith that make this a hard one to call. He’s obviously got a proper dig on him and has big advantages in height and reach – his fights often look like catchweight bouts because he appears to be so much bigger than his opponents. He is the younger man and has fewer miles on the clock too but by the same token you can say that Groves has the edge experience-wise. Putting Carl Froch down is no mean feat so Groves has also proved that he carries a lot of power.
The betting on this shows that the bookmakers have them close with Groves at 5/6 and Smith at 5/4. That’s not something that I can argue with at all. Smith is unexposed so far and the shoulder dislocation for Groves could yet prove problematic. You could argue that if it really was an issue then he would have pulled out but David Price went ahead with his fight after tearing his bicep at the weekend. Let’s not forget the way David Haye bravely opted to take on Vladimir Klitschko with his poorly toe either.
Overall then it could go either way but I’m veering ever so slightly towards Callum Smith here. I won’t be taking the 5/4 but will have a punt on Smith at the enhanced odds that will pop up closer to the fight.
