Man City v Chelsea Preview – Champions League Final
This is the 7th Champions League final between teams from the same country, with four of five since 2008 seeing the side placed higher on their respective domestic tables also triumph in this tournament. That includes both all-English affairs, when Man Utd beat Chelsea on penalties in 2008 and Liverpool eased past Tottenham in 2019.
These finals can quite often be tense games, with five of the last six between sides from the same league featuring less than three goals, one exception when Bayern scored a late winner against Dortmund in 2013.
Man City’s defence has been boosted this season by newly crowned player of the year Ruben Dias, while Thomas Tuchel’s arrival at Chelsea has also seen the Blues defensive abilities improve dramatically. Both sides have conceded just four goals each en route to the final, never conceding more than once in a single game, suggesting this could be a very tight affair.
Under Tuchel, 23 of 29 fixtures so far have seen under 2.5 goals, with 21 of these seeing at least one team fail to score, as Chelsea themselves registered 18 clean sheets.
Tuchel is also looking for a hat-trick of wins over Pep Guardiola since becoming Chelsea boss, having previously ended Man City’s quadruple hopes and then claimed a crucial league win. However, it is fair to say Guardiola didn’t field his strongest side in either game, but with Ilkay Gundogan his only injury concern and expected to be fit in any case, that won’t be the case this time around.
Chelsea themselves haven’t been at their best in recent weeks, losing three of their last four games and going five without a clean sheet. There are also question marks over the fitness of goalkeeper Edouard Mendy, while N’Golo Kante looks set to play after recovering from a hamstring niggle.
Guardiola’s record in cup finals make it tempting to back the favourites in Man City. The Spaniard has won 14 of 15 major cup finals across his time with Barcelona, Bayern and Man City, while teams he led went nearly nine years without even conceding a goal between 2011 and 2020.
By contrast, Tuchel has won just three of his seven major finals as a manager. However, his side were clear favourites on each occasion as Dortmund beat Eintracht Frankfurt in the DFB Pokal in 2017, while PSG triumphed over Saint-Etienne in the 2020 Coupe de France and then again a week later facing Lyon in the Coupe de la Ligue. More worryingly, he lost out to Bayern in last season’s Champions League final and was most recently denied by Leicester in the FA Cup.
There’s been a clear favourite heading into each of the past 11 Champions League finals, with the only upset being Chelsea’s win on penalties over Bayern in 2012. There were two occasions when the favourites needed either extra time or penalties to triumph, as Real Madrid beat Atletico in extra time in 2014 and then again in a shootout in 2016, so City look well placed for the win.
Under 2.5 Goals @ 8/13
Man City @ 17/20
