PGA Championship Betting Preview And Predictions
In what is widely considered to be the least prestigious of the four majors, the PGA Championship is still one of the biggest competitions in the sport, and with the event being brought forward to a more prime-time slot due to Covid, the PGA Championship will get a major boost. Find out where the value lies for the event with our betting preview and predictions.
Due to event being hosted on a different course each year, predicting a winner can be a little more difficult than the Masters. The PGA Championship returns to Kiawah Island, the same venue that Rory McIlroy won this competition by eight clear strokes in 2012, and the strongest field to assemble on the Tour so far this year will be up against the elements that comes with this iconic course.
That said one thing you can bet on when it comes to the Major Championships is that the cream tends to rise to the top, with every single Major winner over the last 10-years being ranked in the world’s top-50, while 15 of the last 21 have been first time winners and on the PGA Tour alone, that’s 22 of the last 35 winning their maiden Major.
Pete Dye designed this course with his wife Alice, however changes were made to bring the conditions into play even more with greens and fairways raised to give unparalleled views of the Atlantic. It’s widely regarded as one of the hardest courses in golf, and the scene of 1991’s ‘War on the Shore’ will once again play host to the world’s best gunning for the Wanamaker Trophy.
There are few course quite like it, Whistling Straits probably the most similar so it’s worth looking at the 2015 leaderboard where Jason Day hung on to win. The course plays similar to a links, so looking for players that have a good links pedigree could be the way to go.
At the longest course in Major history and with McIlroy romping home in 2012, it seems a simple link to make that bombers will go well here. However, only one of the next nine home ranked in the top-15 for driving distance, and it was actually McIlroy’s field leading scrambling that brought it home for him, so work around these rare paspalum greens is going to be key keeping in touch with the top this week and it’s on that basis that we come to our first pick.
Viktor Hovland (25/1) arrives in great form with consecutive third placed finishes at Copperhead and Quail Hollow, and if it weren’t for a misplaced marker at TPC Sawgrass he would have now made 28 consecutive cuts, suggesting his consistency is something that could bode well for him. He’s finished sixth or better in eight of his last 12 Strokeplay events, though the fact that both of his PGA Tour wins to date have come putting on paspalum greens in Mexico and Puerto Rico, is another promising aspect of his game coming into the week.
Another European is our next pick and a player still searching for a first Major win. He has registered more top 10 finishes than any other player on the Tour this year, however still remains without a win, so it’s only a matter of time before Jon Rahm (15/1) picks up another tour victory.
There is no better ball striker off the tee in the game at the moment, and he’s proven consistently from tee-to-green that there are very few that can do what he can. He missed the cut at Quail Hollow, however we aren’t going to consider that due to the fact that this course unquestionably suits his game better.
He has a strong links record and although Kiawah Island isn’t technically a links course, links players should go well considering the nature and undulations of the course. Wins at Portstewart and Lahinch cement Rahm’s place as one of the best coastal players on tour, and if there’s any course that’s set up for him to win his first Major then this is it.
Turning away from the Europeans for a third bet we’ll get behind Marc Leishman (66/1). The Australian is a regular contender in majors, especially in the Open Championships, highlighting his coastal pedigree with three top six finishes in his last five Opens. Factor in his current form and you can see why it could be worth getting behind him.
He has often admitted that USPGA courses aren’t ideal for his game, and that has been notable in his finishes over the last decade or so, however his respectable 27th placed finish here in 2012 suggests he could go well this week.
Three-time Major wiunner Jordan Spieth (18/1)is the final pick and victory will see him complete the Grand Slam here. After a season of poor form, he’s now looking close to his best again and this course should suit his game down to a tee. As mentioned, Whistling Straits could lend itself here and while Jason Day came up trumps there in 2015, it was Spieth who followed him home and that should translate well to Kiawah Island.
His win in Houston should give him plenty of confidence coming into the event, and even his return from the Masters at the Byron Nelson last week saw him finish ninth. He looks incredibly fresh heading into a course where his mental resolve could hold him high aloft of the field.
1.5pts: Viktor Hovland E/W @ 25/1
1pt: Jon Rahm win @ 15/1
1pt: Jordan Spieth win @ 18/1
1pt: Marc Leishman E/W @ 66/1
