Premier League 2018/19 Predictions – Winner and Top Six Finish
The Premier League is the most competitive in the world and unquestionably the most difficult to predict in terms of who will win and which teams will finish in the top six places for 2018/19.
At the top of the table most believe Pep Guardiola’s team will go on and defend their title, something no team has achieved in 10-years and something the Cityzens have never done in their history!
However, Liverpool have drafted in some real quality during the transfer window, adding to a squad that made the Champions League final, while Spurs have a settled young squad that is maturing all the time, many of whom now have successful World Cup experience behind them.
For those of you that give this a read, you have probably been talking about this with your friends in the pub and already come to your own conclusions. Find out if they are anything similar to what we think the top six will be this season.
Liverpool 4/1
Liverpool may have come fourth in the Premier League last season, however they showed in their run to the Champions League final, that they have what it takes to deliver on the domestic front.
They lost just five games during the course of last season and had no problem finding the back of the net, which they did on 84-occassions. One of the concerns for Klopp was the amount of goals conceded, 38 to be exact. That said when you break this down 14 of those came in their final 17 games of the season.
Klopp realized this was a problem and brought in Virgil Van Dijk to shore up the defence, alongside the ever improving Dejan Lovren, who went on to have an outstanding World Cup for Croatia.
The German has certainly splashed the cash this transfer window, signing Allisson for £67m, Naby Keita for £54m, Fabinho who cost £40m and Xherdan Shaqiri for a bargain £13m. This is an impressive selection of high quality resources to go with the likes of Mane, Firmino and Salah, but what was even more impressive was the manner in which he got the business done early in the transfer window and the fact that most of the new boys have had a full preseason with the squad.
Allisson is regarded as one of the very best keepers in the world, while in Fabinho they have an athletic Brazilian that can play in front of the defence and looks equally as good with the ball at his feet running at the opposition, not to mention his passing ability, as you expect from most Brazilian players.
Keita is being spoken about with very high regard and is a player that could take the Premier League by storm, while we know what Shaqiri is capable of.
Preseason has already reminded us what Klopp’s Liverpool like to do, and that is to play attacking football.
Liverpool fans have every reason to be excited coming into the new season, but make no mistake, when you spend £170m you are expected to deliver. Klopp will not need to manage expectations but exceed them.
Manchester City 7/10
Manchester City will unquestionably be primed and ready to become the first side since Manchester United in 2008/09 to defend their title, and when I remind myself of the record breaking season they had, it makes me realise what a bold choice I have made in not predicting they will repeat their excellence of last season!
They romped to the title last season by a massive 19-points, on the way breaking 12-team records in what has certainly raised the bar for the season ahead.
Here is a reminder of some of those achievements.
- Most Points 100: Chelsea held the previous record of 95 in 2004/05
- Most Wins 32: Chelsea again held the previous record of 30 which they achieved in the 2016/17 season
- Most Goals 106: Chelsea again with 103 in 2009/10
- Most Away Wins 16: Another Chelsea record of 15 that fell to Pep’s men.
- Most Consecutive Wins 18: Arsenal were the previous record holders of 14.
Sorry I have to stop there as I am starting to think that Liverpool have no chance!
Make no mistake, City are a quite brilliant team with Pep doing little in the transfer window to strengthen, except for Riyad Mahrez, however I am finding it difficult to see his team repeating these quite extraordinary numbers.
Guardiola is an obsessive perfectionist and will do what he can to install this into his team of winners, but with this will come with added pressure and a weight of expectation from the City faithful, something Liverpool can exploit.
Well in fact Liverpool did manage to exploit something about Man City last season, something that will be fresh in both Klopp and Guardiola’s mindset, as all three of the Liverpool’s wins came in 2018. After being thrashed 5-0 in their first league clash last season, Liverpool regrouped with a 4-3 win at Anfield then a 4-2 aggregate win over the two legs of their Champions League clash.
Klopp has figured out a way to beat City and with their first clash at Anfield on the 7th of October, he will look to his team to repeat what they achieved last season, by putting the game out of reach in the first half. Easier said than done, and who knows what the league table will look like at that stage, Liverpool and City could be several points apart if they don’t hit top gear from the opening game.
The reality is, that if City romped to the title again, I will happily say I got it hopelessly wrong. Why? Well 10-months of being spellbound and entertained for a second consecutive record breaking year, is hardly the worst way for a football fan to spend watching a Premier League season!
Arsenal 22/1
Another bold prediction for Arsenal to finish third and ahead of North London rivals Spurs for the first time since 2015/16. Much has happened since the curtain came down on the 2017/18 season, new manager for the first time since 1996, a host of new signings, a key player that has retired from international football and the privatization of the club.
New manager Unai Emery has already started to make an impact at the club and if he can replicate the success he achieved with Valencia and Sevilla, then Arsenal have a good future ahead of them. He has a rigorous approach on the training ground, with a renewed focus on pressing, tactics and off-the-ball work, something that seemed to be missing from the Gunners approach for some time now.
Lucas Torreira, Stephan Lichtsteiner, Sokratis Papastathopoulos and Bernd Leno are all looking like useful additions that have been added to the squad and in Alexandre Lacazette, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Henrikh Mkhitaryan, they have a front three that has looked pretty sharp in preseason.
Adding to this is the recent announcement by Mesut Ozil that he will retire from International football, citing racism within the German FA as his main reason. This means additional rest for a player which hasn’t had much over the last several years with all of his playing commitments, something that should work very much in Arsenal’s favour.
Finally, the privatization of the club that has certainly split opinion. American Stan Kroenke agreed a deal to buy Alisher Usmanovs shares in the club worth £550million. This means Kroenke will be able to get hold of the last three odd percent of shares that are owned by Arsenal fans, leading the supporters to believe that their share of voice in the running and traditions of the club have gone.
While I completely understand the reservations of the Arsenal faithful, I believe this decision is within the best interest of the long-term health of the club
Kroenke is no stranger to owning sports franchises, LA Rams, Colorado Rapids, LA Gladiators and the Colorado Mammoth all part of his growing portfolio. He certainly knows how to drive these franchises forward as a business, which after all is what the Premier League is all about these days.
The knock-on effect is already evident as Arsenal will swap Puma for Adidas in £60million deal that doubles their money for next season.
I believe that the American will invest to bring back the glory days of yesteryear. If this happens then the fans will forgive and forget. Over the short term I see them back in the Champions League, then next season who knows.
Tottenham 14/1
Tough to see how far Spurs can go in their title challenge this season. Mauricio Pochettino has signed an extension to his contract with a number of their key players following suit like Kane, Eriksen, Dele Alli and Lloris. The backbone of their squad is young and full of potential, however it does appear that they will have to rely more on developing the talent they have, as opposed to bringing any in to help their cause.
Looking at it from this perspective there is no reason why this can’t happen, after all look at Harry Kane and his development, 2014/15 he scored 21-goals, since then he has managed to improve on that tally each season, 25 in 2015/16, 29 in 2016/17 and then 30 last season. If the rest of the squad grow performance wise at this rate, then who knows what they can achieve during the 2018/19 campaign.
Don’t forget that quite a few of the squad have just added a World Cup experience to their games, Kieran Tripier in particular putting in a number of world class performances. This will certainly help the maturity of the squad and their ability to bring out their best in the biggest Premier League games.
With a new stadium almost ready, the club has had to shelve out a rather large amount of money, so buying for the sake of buying is not an option.
Spurs fans will be wary of their bitter rivals Arsenal and their preseason form. For the last two years bragging rights have sat with them, however I expect this could change in 2018/19.
Chelsea 12/1
Still not really sure why Chelsea run the club the way that they do. Maurizio Sarri comes in as the fourteenth manager in 14-years, a list that includes the who’s who of managers over the last two decades. Getting rid of Conte after two years, a proven winner as a player and a manager, is a decision that still leaves me scratching my head.
Thibaut Courtois has left the club for Real Madrid after going AWOL to force the move through, Athletic Bilbao keeper Kepa Arrizabalaga comes in to replace him, but at a world record cost for a stopper, £72million, which was his release clause. The deal for Kepa outstrips the £66.8m paid by Liverpool for Alisson last month.
Sarri has had little time with his squad but looks to have defused two crucial situations involving key players moving away. Firstly, Willian who was the subject of bids from both Barcelona and Manchester United, while Real Madrid were told they must pay £200million if they want to take their prized asset, Hazard.
Former England keeper Robert Green has come in on a free transfer, with their big signing coming with Sarri from Napoli, Jorginho. He was exceptional last season for the Italians and has showcased what he capable of in preseason, however he still needs to see if he can cope with the physical demands of the Premier League.
The big concern for Chelsea is in front of goal, they struggled last season and could again this season. Alvaro Morata is not a proven goalscorer on the big stage, just look at his stats last season and prior to that when with Real Madrid and Juventus.
Hazard will score, but he needs support from a top class striker if they are to even contemplate Champions League football next season.
Manchester United 7/1
Bold statement to say that United will finish sixth after finishing second last year. They have had a pretty poor preseason with many of their top stars missing due to leave after the World Cup. Mourinho has spent most of that time moaning about this and the lack of signings, hardly the sort of negativity that the youngsters in the squad or fans will thrive on.
His relationship with United chief Ed Woodward appears to be at breaking point and to make matters worse Paul Pogba has stated that he is not happy at the club and is forcing a move to Barcelona.
On a brighter note Alexis Sanchez, who hasn’t had the best of starts to life at Old Trafford since he joined in January 2018, has arrived looking sharp and fit, while the one main signing in Brazilian Fred, was a pretty good piece of business.
My only concern is Sanchez and Lukaku, and their ability to play together. In the backend of last season, I saw nothing to suggest that this will be the dynamic duo in front of goal that can deliver a league title. Only time will tell as the season unfolds.
Struggling to write anything positive about this once dominant force in the Premier League and not because I dislike the club or anything like that. It is because I have started to realise that I don’t believe Jose Mourinho is the right fit.
Everything about him is negative, even down to the football he wants his team to execute. Look at Pogba for example. An exceptional World Cup under Deschamps, more freedom to do what he does best. At United, we have yet to see this level of excellence due to Mourinho not seeing what sort of player he has at his disposal and not letting him off the leash.
His pitch side demeanor and sulky press conferences are not the level of professionalism one expects from a manger of a club like Manchester United.
I hope I am wrong and that United can take the new season head on and challenge for the title, however I simply can’t see this happening at this stage.
Who is your pick for the Premier League Golden Boot. Here are our thoughts.
