The 147th Open at Carnoustie – Preview
The Open returns to Carnoustie for the first time in 11 years and is arguably the ‘Toughest’ on the Open course roster. The last time it was played at Carnoustie In 2007 Padraig Harrington overcame Sergio Garcia in a playoff. This secured the first leg of back to back Open triumphs for Harrington.
It’s not often that a runner up is more famous than the winner but at Carnoustie anything is possible. No one will ever forget Jean Van De Velde’s ordeal at the 18th in 1999. Leading by three shots, he managed to find every trouble spot possible on the ‘Home’ hole. Van de Velde ended up in a three way playoff, which Paul Lawrie eventually won .
Golf has been played at Carnoustie since the early 16th century. With so many players looking to compete here this week it should be an amazing event. Whoever takes the Claret Jug home with them on Sunday will have fully deserved it.
Here are a few thoughts from the players themselves
The Open Course Layout
At over 7,400 yards Par 71, Carnoustie is the longest course to host the Open. It’s narrow and has bunkers that are not only positioned well, but require a JCB to escape. Throw in the winds steaming in off the coastline and you have the toughest course in Britain to contend with.
Former winner at Carnoustie in 1975, Tom Watson said this about the course. “Carnoustie Championship rates maybe the highest in difficulty,” “There’s so much variety, there are the narrowest fairways in Open golf and it forces you to play through the bunkers. You have to really drive the ball well here.”
16th at Carnoustie 'Barry Burn'
Arguably one of the hardest Par 3’s in the World. Named after the river ‘Barry Burn’ that runs down the left of this hole it consistently plays over its Par. In 2007 it ranked the 6th hardest hole on the course playing 3.31 on average.
18th at Carnoustie 'Home'
The tournament is never over until you have got ‘Home’, just ask poor Jean Van de Velde. A finishing hole that will test the nerve of any golfer. It completes the toughest three finishing holes in any Major. In 2007 it ranked the hardest hole with a scoring average of 4.61 over the four days of Golf.
The Stats and Figures
Not since 1990 when Sir Nick Faldo was at his prime, has an Englishman won the Open. With several players like Rose, Fleetwood, Poulter, Casey, Hatton, Pepperall all playing well could this be the year?
What does it take to actually win an Open Championship. If you look back at the last 10 winners they are all seasoned, multiple tour winners and had plenty of previous Open Experience. To go to a course like Carnoustie as a ‘Virgin’ so to speak is tough.
- 5 of the last 7 Open winners have been over 40 years old
- 12 of the last 13 Open Winners had all finished inside the Top 10 previously
Having previous Open form is also a massive prerequisite when looking at past winners. The test of Golf that a links course brings is unique, get a strong wind blowing and lots of preparation is thrown out of the window. This is where the experience comes into play.
I will always remember a quote ‘It’s not how good your good shots are, its how bad your bad ones are’. This is so true at a course like Carnoustie and players that are able to scramble well around the Greens will make up several shots on the field this week.
There are many angles that you can look at when taking on an Open field. I would be looking for Golfers this week who are showing a bit of form, can drive the ball straight and can scramble well. It has been reported that the course is playing very hard so length I don’t think will be a factor this week. Lastly as always avoid someone who is struggling on the greens, this could rule out the likes of Speith and Rory from your calculations.
Previous Open Winners
2017 – Jordan Spieth -12
2016 – Henrik Stenson -20
2015 – Zach Johnson -15 (playoff)
2014 – Rory McIlroy -17
2013 – Phil Mickelson -3
2012 – Ernie Els -7
2011 – Darren Clarke -5
2010 – Louis Oosthuizen -16
2009 – Stewart Cink -2 (playoff)
2008 – Padraig Harrington +3
Key Components for Carnoustie
Driving Accuracy %
Around the Green – Scrambling %
Both these stats for previous winners at Carnoustie have ranked higher than the average for the previous 10 Open Winners at other courses.
Three Players to Watch
As always at SPORTSvox we try and give you a couple of players to follow in the Majors. With Tony Finau coming through at US Masters and some near misses at the US Open lets see how we get on this week. This should be a cracking Open Championship with many possible winners. Here are three that we think will be in with a good shout come Sunday afternoon.
The World No.1 goes into this Open having not played since the US Open, but don’t let that put you off. A serial contender in this event, Johnson has great scrambling stats. He can navigate his way around tight courses without the need for a driver on most occasions. If he fairs a little better on the greens this week he will have a great chance.
Henrik Stenson
The former Open champion knows what it takes to win and ticks a lot of the boxes required for Carnoustie. He tops the US PGA Tour for Driving accuracy and is 5th in Scrambling. We have spoken about how experience counts and at 42 I wouldn’t put another Open victory beyond him.
Francesco Molinari
The unassuming Italian is our slight outsider pick. He is showing great form, finishing second in the states last week. I would be a little concerned about his Open form, only one top 10 in ten previous attempts. That aside however, he leads the European Tour in Scrambling and is Top 10 for Driving Accuracy. I expect him to have a good Open this year.
Other Notables
Its hard to not include an Englishman in the mix. If i was to pick two from the pack I would go with Fleetwood and Casey this time round. I think Fleetwood has come of age this year and has the game attributes to compete this week. Casey as we all know is a great scrambler, if the conditions remain benign he is one of those golfers who can also go really, really low. So if the weather stays calm he could be in with a shout.
Dustin Johnson
The World No.1 goes into this Open having not played since the US Open, but don’t let that put you off. A serial contender in this event, Johnson has great scrambling stats. He can navigate his way around tight courses without the need for a driver on most occasions. If he fairs a little better on the greens this week he will have a great chance.
Henrik Stenson
The former Open champion knows what it takes to win and ticks a lot of the boxes required for Carnoustie. He tops the US PGA Tour for Driving accuracy and is 5th in Scrambling. We have spoken about how experience counts and at 42 I wouldn’t put another Open victory beyond him.
Francesco Molinari
The unassuming Italian is our slight outsider pick. He is showing great form, finishing second in the states last week. I would be a little concerned about his Open form, only one top 10 in ten previous attempts. That aside however, he leads the European Tour in Scrambling and is Top 10 for Driving Accuracy. I expect him to have a good Open this year.
Other Notables
Its hard to not include an Englishman in the mix. If i was to pick two from the pack I would go with Fleetwood and Casey this time round. I think Fleetwood has come of age this year and has the game attributes to compete this week. Casey as we all know is a great scrambler, if the conditions remain benign he is one of those golfers who can also go really, really low. So if the weather stays calm he could be in with a shout.
