US Masters 2018 Preview
Never before has a US Masters been so eagerly anticipated by the golfing world, so I thought I would try and give some more insight into one of the greatest sporting events of the year. Yes Tiger is back and regardless of what you may or may not think about him as a person, no one else has taken Golf to new heights such as he has over the last 20 years.
However, if Tiger thought he could waltz back on the scene and come Sunday afternoon be wearing another green jacket, I have a list of golfers as long as my arm that would beg to differ. Given his recent resurgence and his phenomenal record at Augusta it would not be a surprise to see him move his tally of majors to 15. There is a serious array of talent though in this field and even ‘The Postman’ Poulter is looking to get in on the action following his last minute qualification by winning the Houston Open, a fantastic effort. This years Masters will surely be one of the best ever with so many of the World’s Top golfers all heading to Augusta with a bit of form.
As part of a side project I am kicking off, I thought the first step would be to get some insight from a varied audience of friends / colleagues and so called experts to see what the consensus looks like on a few of the betting markets this week. I have picked out a few of the main highlights from the results.
Outright Winner
That’s right, its anyone’s, a couple of surprises in here but generally its your big hitters, course specialists, top ranked players featuring in most peoples lists. Gone are the days where Tiger goes off 9/4 favourite however, with 14 players including last years winner Sergio Garcia ( not selected here btw ) all between 10/1 and 25/1 to scoop the Masters trophy.
Although Tiger and Bubba received the lions share of the vote (14%) through the predictor, my personal selections would be Speith and Rose against the field. They both have the length, experience, course knowledge, form etc to win this. The only reservation I would have is over their putting but Speith looked more at home at Houston and I would be looking for a massive week from him. *see my scoring notes below. If you are looking for a little more value I certainly wouldn’t put anyone off backing Poulter at 66/1, had some snippets of form here, great putter and obviously in good form. I really do feel however this Masters is with the Top 10 in the field but and its a big but as I don’t normally back debutants but if Tony Finau can have a good putting week with his length at Augusta he may just surprise a few at around the 100/1 mark.
Top European
This is a really interesting market, and notable that Garcia features here but not in the outright, are we nailed on a US outright winner in that case……… With the Ryder Cup later in the year, all the Europeans have been looking to have a good 12 months and the strength in depth in Europe at the moment will make for a great spectacle in France, later in the year. Rahm, Stenson, Noren, Hatton, just a few not mentioned here that could all have a part to play come Sunday.
We have mentioned Rose already and he took 32% of the predictions so far, very solid but I am sure McIIroy will be revved up and ready to go come Thursday. We know that if he is on top form he could quite easily run away with this tournament. I like Casey, his course form is super and he can shoot super low if the conditions are in his favour. *see my scoring notes below You can throw in some others at larger prices in this category, Stenson is playing well, Noren too but apart from a couple of top 20 finishes previously not really challenged and once again although he is short at 9/2 Rose would be my selection.
Top Debutant
Some real unknowns here for the non golf fanatics but at the same time I think its my strongest selection of the week. From the predictor it was pretty split, Miyazato coming out on top with 23% of the predictions (they must know something I don’t).
For me though, as I explained earlier I like the chances of Tony Finau here and against the rest of this category I think he has an outstanding chance at around 4/1 to become Top Debutant 2018.
Winning Score
One of the most fascinating markets of the week will be watching how low these guys go over the four days. I don’t think anyone has this market up yet so in preparation you can keep an eye on the forecast and take a look at the stats below. I used this question as a ‘playoff’ question but the more I looked into it the more it became interesting. Before reading the below I can tell you that from the predictions the average came out at 277 (-11 Under) but had as low as 271 (-17 Under) predicted.
I looked at all the winning scores from the last 25 years but focused on post 2011 course changes for the purposes of comparison in recent events. I also looked at the weather for those years and let me tell you if it blows round Augusta you will not be seeing anything close to the 270 (-18 Under) that Speith won with in 2015. At the moment the forecast for this year is mixed, cool but dry Thursday and Friday and the potential for rain and thunderstorms across the weekend. If the wind stays away and the course remains wet through round 3 and 4 I think this could really favour the longer hitters more so this year than in the previous few.
Speith to Shine?
There are so many players playing well that you only need one of them to find a real going week, with conditions remaining stable and low numbers will be posted. But here is why my main selection has to be Speith this week as he can win both ways and will happily grind away for a victory. His results at the Masters the last 4 years are – T2/1/T2/T11 and apart from a poor final round last year would have been a lot closer. He shot -18 Under in 2015 to win, yet 16 shots worse in 2016 in horrendous conditions to finish 2nd, regardless of whats put in front of him he can definitely get it round Augusta.
At around 10-1 / 12-1 now its a little short but he still has my vote and if he puts well will be very hard to beat this week. Hope you enjoyed the read and don’t forget to enter the predictor to have your say!
